Q1 2026 — War, Credit Stress, and the AI Reality Check

Published: 21 April 2026

Welcome to the first edition of The Long-Short Briefing.

We aim to bring you concise episode summaries, deeper analysis, and a direct line to the ideas shaping alternative investments.

Each quarter, we’ll cut through the noise and distil the most important ideas shaping alternative investments drawn from our conversations with fund managers, investors, policymakers and other industry leaders on The Long-Short podcast.

You can also ask questions, share feedback, and help shape future episodes by suggesting guests and topics.

We hope you find this digest a useful primer for the past quarter, but encourage you to go back and listen to the full episodes to appreciate the valuable insights of our guest in their own words.

Q1 2026
From war in the Middle East to intense scrutiny of private credit, and the relentless march of AI into asset management, the past few months have tested how investors process risk, uncertainty and opportunity in real time.

So, rather than add to the noise, we’re cutting through it.

We’ve pulled together the most important lessons from recent episodes of The Long-Short — the ideas that go beyond the headlines and are most likely to shape how fund managers and allocators navigate what comes next.


The conflict markets may still be under-pricing
As the Middle East tensions escalated, a new hot conflict this quarter centred on Iran, much of the focus has been on immediate market reactions — oil spikes, supply chain disruption and volatility across commodities.

In episode 126, Damien Bruckard, Co-Founder and Chair of Geopolitical Strategy, the bigger question was whether markets are fully pricing what comes next. Hint: they may still not be.

Short-term prices have reacted sharply, but longer-term expectations suggest investors are still assuming a contained, relatively short-lived conflict. That assumption may prove costly.

“Wars are a lot easier to start than they are to end.”

At the centre of the risk sits the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows and a textbook example of how geographic chokepoints can be used to transmit disruption across the global economy.

But the real takeaway goes beyond any single region.

For investors, the challenge is not just tracking events but mapping exposures and understanding how second- and third-order effects ripple through portfolios, from inflation and rates to currency dynamics and geopolitical alignment.

The winners and losers of this cycle remain uncertain, but Damian equips listeners with the right questions to ask to avoid being blindsided.

Listen to the full episode here.


Private credit faces scrutiny — but this isn’t 2008
Within alternatives, one theme has dominated: the growing scrutiny of private credit.

From rising redemptions in more liquid vehicles to questions around AI-driven disruption in loan books, the relentless negative headlines have been impossible to ignore.

In episode 124, Edward Smalley, Chief Co-Investments Officer & Head of Investment Solutions at Chenavari, the reality from an insider’s perspective looks more nuanced.

Edward’s explained how volatility is rising, but the system itself is fundamentally different from the pre-2008 era.

Banks are better capitalised, regulatory oversight is tighter, and many modern credit structures are designed to distribute rather than concentrate risk. This is far more likely to be a test of manager discipline than a trigger for systemic stress.

The more interesting fault line sits elsewhere: transparency.

Private credit has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar market according to AIMA’s private credit affiliate the Alternative Credit Council, but by its nature remains more opaque than public markets. That creates a dynamic where risks may not be gradually priced in, but instead emerge abruptly when conditions tighten.

For investors, the differentiator is no longer just access, but visibility — how deeply they can understand the underlying exposures and underwriting quality.

The message is simple: do the work.

Listen to the full episode here.


AI is still at “day one” — and that changes the conversation
If geopolitics and credit defined the macro backdrop, AI dominated the boardroom.

But, in our conversation with McKinsey’s Global Head of Technology and AI, Kate Smaje, (episode 125) one message cut through the noise: we are still at the very beginning.

“This is the most basic the technology will ever be,” she noted.

Despite rapid advances, most firms are still experimenting rather than scaling. Many are struggling to translate AI into tangible business value.

That raises a deeper question: where does competitive edge actually come from?

One answer is a shift from automation to augmentation.

“Not ‘do it for me’… but ‘do it with me’.”

AI is increasingly being used not just to execute tasks, but to challenge thinking, test assumptions and refine decision-making.

In that world, human judgment becomes more, not less, important.

As one recent AIMA survey shows, 58% of fund managers expect increased use of generative AI in investment processes over the next year, up from just 20% in 2023. Adoption is accelerating — but the real transformation is still ahead.

The question now is not just what AI can do, but what it should do.

Listen to the full episode here.


Hedge funds performance Q1: a tale of two halves
Performance this quarter has reflected the broader uncertainty.

The year started strongly, building on a positive 2025, with hedge funds up around 4% before geopolitical tensions escalated. Since then, performance has flattened as markets adjusted to the new risk environment.

In Episode 125, Goldman Sachs’ Freddie Parker described this as a “tale of two halves” — a reminder of how quickly conditions can shift.

But history suggests resilience.

After a prolonged period of low volatility and high correlation, the current environment, characterised by higher rates and greater dispersion, may ultimately favour hedge fund strategies focused on risk management and capital preservation.

For allocators, the implication is familiar but increasingly relevant: in uncertain markets, diversification and downside protection matter more.

Listen to the full episode here.


What’s next
Looking ahead, the next quarter of The Long-Short will combine real-time reactions to market developments with deeper dives into how different parts of the alternative investment industry actually work.

That includes:

· More geographic coverage, including underexplored regions like Latin America

· Conversations with managers on strategy and operations

· Deep dives into topics like liquidity management tools — an area that has generated plenty of headlines, but still lacks widespread understanding

If you want to stay ahead of these themes and help shape the conversation, make sure you’re subscribed.

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